As social distancing, self-quarantine and shelter-in-place become the new normal,
the local economy may face a future as frightening as COVID-19 itself
by Mark Craddock
OUR WORLD — An eerie calm hung like the uncharacteristic early-morning mist over the streets of Walsenburg Tuesday. Foot traffic on Main Street was sparse. The typically bustling breakfast service at local restaurants was all-but nonexistent. Parking lots were virtually empty.
Signs hung in empty doorways. Some apologized for the inconvenience, others announced take-out service was still available. Others simply said “closed.”
Just hours earlier, Colorado Gov. Jared Polis announced a statewide public health order closing bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters and casinos for the next 30 days, ratcheting up the “social distancing” which has become the clarion call in the nation’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Throughout southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, schools, public facilities and businesses have closed; myriad events and public meetings have been canceled; sports events, from little league to pro, have been canceled or postponed.
Walsenburg’s Fox Theatre announced it would be closed for the foreseeable future.
Dorcas Circle has closed until at least mid-April. The local food and clothing pantry is an essential safety net for the area’s low-income residents, and its services may be even more essential as more residents encounter COVID-related unemployment.
Many similar pantries have reported shortages caused in part by epidemic-related hoarding. But Dorcas Circle Board Member Julie Chamberlain said that concern for the volunteers, not shortages, prompted the closure.
“Most of the volunteers are kind of elderly,” she said, “and we’re concerned about their safety. We do see about 100-150 people through there a day and we were concened with the amount of people they were coming into contact with.”
Public officials are weighing the necessity of governance against the need for safety in deciding when or if to shutter the doors of the courts, county commission chambers and city halls.
On Tuesday night, The Town of La Veta, meeting in the town’s community center to allow for social distancing, unanimously approved an emergency ordinance to allow “virtual meetings.” The board also agreed to keep Town Hall closed for now, with a drop box for water bills and encouragement to citizens to call or e-mail.
Similarly, Trinidad City Council met Wednesday evening via gotomeeting.com, and is encouraging all citizens to interact with the city through digital or telephone communication.
Walsenburg Municipal Court announced Tuesday that it would be in session March 23, but would grant continuances to all who do not appear.
The Town of Walsenburg issued guidelines encouraging online bill paying and use of the City Hall drop box to conduct town business. They have also canceled a scheduled March 31 flood-mitigation review public meeting at the Fox Theatre.
Colorado’s Third Judicial District issued an administrative order Tuesday which, among other things, continues all jury trials scheduled for March and April, and continues all court hearing currently scheduled through March 31. The state Supreme Court isued an order suspending all jury calls in the state through April 3, except in criminal trials facing imminent “speedy trial” deadlines. The state’s high court will reassess the order at that time.
Likewise, the New Mexico Supreme Court suspended all jury trials in District, Metropolitan and Magistrate Courts that have not already started until April 30.
The Huerfano County Commissioners have canceled their next two meetings in March, if a special meeting is necessary, 24-hour notice will be given.
Grim Outlook
But Monday’s announcement by Colorado Gov. Polis in particular brought into sharp focus the impending economic calamity of responding to COVID-19, at least for area restaurateurs, bar owners and other service-related businesses.
According to the Monday order, establishments may continue to offer food and beverages using delivery service, window service, walk-up service, drive-through or drive-up service, and must use precautions in doing so to mitigate the potential transmission of COVID-19. Establishments may allow up to five members of the public at one time on the premises for the purpose of picking up their food or beverage orders, so long as those individuals are at least six feet apart from one another.
Some restaurant owners, like Joe Sylling of George’s Restaurant, were doing just that – making the best of a bad situation as they tried to come to grips with a suddenly frightening and uncertain future.
George’s is an institution in Walsenburg, and most days its booths and tables are nearly full of customers from opening to closing. On Tuesday, a half-circle of chairs separated the front counter from the empty seating area as a smattering of customers received take-out orders.
“I’m stocking up on your chili,” one customer shouted, trying to lighten the mood.
Sylling was contemplative. He had no solid answers beyond that day, that shift, that breakfast service.
“Today, I’m running it this way,” he said. “I don’t know what we’ll do tomorrow. We’ll have to see.”
Sylling bought the popular restaurant on Jan. 1, upon the retirement of longtime owner Tony Amidei. He expected that business ownership would bring with it a few early bumps in the road. But nothing prepared him for the mantle of responsibility he inherited Tuesday morning.
“I’m super nervous about it. How can I keep my employees going? None of them are getting fired,” he said, seeming to sort out his narrowing options out loud. “For 30 days, I can survive. Sixty days, maybe. Beyond that, who knows.
Your Business Matters
The Colorado Workforce center reported new claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 6,800 by 10 a.m. Tuesday, up from 400 a week ago, on Monday, March 9. ”
According to the US Census Bureau, Huerfano County saw $8,985,000 in accommodation and food services sales in the 2012 Economic Census, making the sector one of the leading drivers in the local economy, behind retail sales and health care.
While toilet paper hoarding and a possible run on healthcare services might bode well for retail sales and healthcare, a prolonged shutdown in food service could spell disaster not only for the small-business owners and their employees, but for an already struggling local economy writ large.
A 2017 report prepared for the City of Walsenburg and Huerfano County by Economic and Planning Systems, Inc., noted that 171 employees worked in the food-service sector in 2016.
Hospitality industries, in general, made up about 11 percent of county employment at that time.
The report notes a general employment uptick of about 8 percent in the third quarter of every year, which corresponds with summer travel and tourism season.
While noting that some of the increase is attributable to construction and public-sector jobs, the report says, “…a significant portion of the increase can be attributed to tourism-related industries, including arts, entertainment and recreation, and accommodation and food services.”
With spring and summer tourist season just around the corner, it’s hard to predict what damage “social distancing” will ultimately inflict.
Testing, Testing
Among the great unknowns in the midst of the state’s coronavirus response remains the scope, duration and, ultimately, lethality of the epidemic. And one of the most glaring problems in gleaning critical information has been the slow ramp-up of testing for the virus.
According to the Las Animas-Huerfano Counties District Health Department, just 20 people have been tested for COVID-19 in Las Animas County. None of those tests results had been processed by Tuesday afternoon, according to the health department Emergency Preparedness Coordinator.
In Huerfano County, only four tests have been administered, he said None of the patients tested positive.
In a Tuesday press conference, State Epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy admitted that problems remain in acquiring and processing an adequate number of tests, but the CDPHE is working with private contractors to increase its testing capacity.
“We are trying to expand testing capabilities,” she said. “The state public health lab is not a commercial lab. It doesn’t have the equipment and staff to do the volume of testing we expect to have at a commercial lab.”
Herlihy said the CDPHE is working closely with the federal government to get more supplies, and is even working on tapping into the national strategic stockpile.
Meantime, Herlihy said the state is prioritizing certain areas for testing, to “help us understand where transmission is happening.” At the moment, the emphasis is on West Slope ski resort communities such as Telluride and Steamboat Springs, based on what they’ve learned about transmission in Pitkin, Eagle and Summit Counties.
“We certainly understand very much the interest in testing being widely available,” she said. “I would say there is certainly a need to have more testing done. We are working with our healthcare partners to make sure it is more available in the state. But not all patients have to be tested. There are certain people who should be prioritized; those over 60, those with underlying health issues and health care workers, for instance.”
“Obviously,” she said, “it’s a challenging situation.”
How long can it last?
The death knell for any service-industry business and its workers is a dearth of clients to serve.
As COVID-19 continues its inevitable march, as cases grow exponentially, as expressions like social distancing, self-quarantine and shelter-in-place become the lexicon of the world’s new normal, the clients will continue to dwindle, the businesses will continue to suffer.
It’s like drought to a farmer. The only pertinent questions become “how long can it last” and “can I hang on?”
Back at George’s, Sylling said a daily return of about $1,500 makes his restaurant profitable, and $1,000 is sustainable for a while.
Looking across the empty dining room, he winced.
“I don’t think we’re going to hit that today.”
